Both halves of this deserve a straight answer, so I will take them in turn.
On knowing: the things that should prompt a review are change rather than the state you have settled into. New pain in a replacement that had become comfortable, movement you had and have now lost, a sense of the joint slipping or giving way, and any redness, fever, swelling or discharge from the old wound area. The last group is urgent rather than a wait and see, because a deep infection is one of the routes to failure and it can appear at any point after the operation, not only early. Gradual stiffness that has been with you since the first year, by contrast, is usually just your shoulder, and you are right that people tend to attribute genuine new symptoms to ageing. If in doubt, be seen and imaged, since a plain X ray answers a lot of this quickly.
On how likely: for most people this never becomes relevant. Pooled registry and study figures put shoulder replacements at around 90 percent still in place at 10 years, and beyond that the chance of needing a revision runs at roughly 1 percent a year, so the risk accumulates slowly rather than arriving on a due date. On what a revision is: it means removing some or all of the original components, putting in new ones, sometimes of a different type, and dealing with whatever caused the failure. It is a bigger and more demanding operation than the first, because there is less bone to work with and more scarring, and the results are usually good for pain but less predictable for reach and strength. To reverse-at-68's point, a failed anatomic total or a failed partial is often converted to a reverse precisely because a reverse does not need a working cuff. A reverse that fails is harder, and is where the planning gets genuinely specialised. Our page on what a revision shoulder replacement involves sets that out in full, and how long a replacement lasts has the survival figures behind it. What none of this can do is tell you the state of your own implant, which is a question for your surgeon and an X ray.